Copenhagen Climate Negotiations and New Zealand

Heralding as a watershed moment in history, the 15th Conference of the Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP15) will convene on 7th December 2009, in Copenhagen, to respond to the greatest collective-action problem in human history: climate change. The core purpose of COP15 is to agree upon national carbon reduction targets to avoid dangerous climate change. 

The lynch–pin of success at COP15 depends entirely on the interplay between the two super powers: China and the US. The Chinese president did not offer hard targets, only promising a “notable” reduction in carbon intensity per unit of GDP. Although this meaningless commitment will merely sustain the unsustainable – as even the second greatest emitter, the US, has reduced its carbon intensity by circa 20% over the last decade – this is more than what President Obama offered. With Martin Luther–like prose and charisma, President Obama has offered nothing other than nice words around the dire need for international coherency on developing a post-Kyoto agreement. Using words like “togetherness”, “swiftness” and “synergies” rather than actual targets, timeframes and mechanisms, the circumvention of this time-sensitive problem is not only based on the cat-and-mouse negotiating game that China and the US are playing, but much wider socio-economic issues. 

COP15 and human-induced climate change aside, President Obama has a lot on his plate. With debt at record levels, the US economy is in a perilous state. The federal deficit is likely to average a trillion dollars a year over the next decade. The cost of the bail-out (or money printing) entitlements will undoubtedly rise vertiginously with the rehabilitation of Iraq, the continuation Afghanistan, and advent of the recently ratified health care bill. 

The above aside, Obama has one other undeniable reality to content with when defining a position on human-induced climate change. This is profoundly simple. Analogous with their refutation of Darwinism, US citizens surrealistically don’t believe in human-induced climate change. A recent survey from the Pew Research Centre found that a whopping 64% of US citizens don’t believe global temperatures are rising as a result of human activity. 

It is because of these reasons COP15 will result in nothing more than a pointlessly loose, and incomprehensibly conceptual agreement with no accountability or legal grounding. 

So what does this mean for New Zealand?

Despite the widespread uptake of the New Zealand Institute’s “where right behind you” proposal towards emission management, affirmative action on climate change leadership is still warranted. Due to the almost certain lack of involvement by developing countries, New Zealand will undoubtedly offer a 10% reduction in greenhouse gas by 2020. This modest reduction target is already compromising the smoke and mirrors “clean green” image that underpins the prosperity of our economy. 

Furthermore, over the long term New Zealand is offering a 2050 target of 50%. This target is trumped even by the US – a country that is effectively bankrupt and doesn’t even believe in human-induced climate change. Meanwhile the EU – New Zealand’s biggest export market – is implementing step-change carbon budgets and reduction targets consistent with IPCC science. Founded on agricultural protectionism, the EU will undoubtedly roll-out carbon tariffs in the near future directed specifically at those developed nations with poor climate credentials. With their agricultural sector being grossly inefficient, the political powerhouse that is the EU farming lobby will look to further defuse their Southern Hemisphere competitors. Couple this looming threat with the surge in Brazilian agricultural production and the eventual internalisation of the Chinese economy – which will undoubtedly result in the modernisation and corporatisation of agriculture – and New Zealand’s undisputed economic backbone is at risk of being marginalised due to short sightedness and weak climate leadership.    

To further open your eyes to how the world is starting to see New Zealand Check out this article at UK Guardian Newspapers.